France " forum signs up for " the article inscribed formerly on Feburary 14: The pace that the crisis quickened influence to be transferred eastwards by the west (the Ke Xiaoer in author dust and Fulangsuowa Langgelai)
Neal Ferguson is professor of history of haing Buddha university, also be the author of a lot of economic history record and TV newsreel, he still is the news analyst that heat of a media holds in both hands at the same time. This Aberdonian new book of many years old 40 will be published by Oxford press this year in March, he is written newly for this took a simple name -- , " civilized " . What this book aims to decoded what element to bring about the west is arisen and can be in be as long as the dictate plant lights in the time of 5 centuries is worn whole world. Look in Neal Ferguson, these elements had disappeared nowadays perhaps say the west has held monopoly position no longer. The dinner that Ferguson concerns commercial history in a when Dawosi holds during economic forum introduced his analysis on the meeting.
north face shirts The whole world or greet big winter
" forum signs up for " the reporter asks: Had we walke the most popular selling plantronic wireless headset d out of the crisis?
Neal Ferguson answers: The whole world may greet a big winter. Fortunately, strong step was adopted to alleviate in taxation and monetary domain the consequence that place of this kind of decline brings. But at present, we are being experienced " drinking excessive " brought undesirable consequence. Its behave a form is dominion debt crisis. Every time country of an indebted exceeding gets when the blow of money market, dominion debt crisis can spread further. So, can this kind of chain-reacting spread to the whole euro area, other one aspect of the matter that affects Atlantic, can you affect even Japan? To this, to the best of my belief not doubt, because the deficit of these countries or indebted a bit are assuming at us so called " Europe pig country " (PIGS) , namely Portuguese, Ireland, Greek and the c the best selling loony tunes golden ountry such as Spain. because su the most popular furniture light ch, if do not give expect, investor is particular to the view of Japan and certificate of beautiful national debt meeting occurrence change. The change of this kind of view will naturally cause these national name interest rate rise, and this will cause serious consequence to these countries. This is the risk that place of economy of near future whole world faces, this is decided by the economic dimensions place of the United St furniture light ates and Japan.
China and west are contrary inevitable
Ask: Forum of Wo Si economy is amounted to to go up in what just hold, a lot of people notice in the speech, the contrast between the conditio the best selling mountain t shirts n with the economic atmosphere that develops flourishingly for burgeoning country of the representing with China and industrialized dej loony tunes golden ected country is more and more apparent. You how look upon this one problem?
memory card digital camerasAnswer: Look from historical angle, current financial crisis appears below the big setting that transfers large-scaly eastwards from the west in economic strength. In fact, the move of this kind of force is at the beginning of 2007 had begun before, and this crisis is the pace that quickened move nevertheless just.
Ask: Had this kind of influence once appeared to transfer on the history?
Answer: Before a century, the whole world ever had experienced similar phenomenon, the United States and German press hard on are worn at that time England, became industrialized powerful nation. With respect t free mountain t shirts o the United States character, this kind of change is to be in smooth in of implementation. The United States in 19 centuries 70 time surmount England successfully already, below the frame that accompanies a relationship in Ying Meihuo, england according to " old people gives place to youth " means, jump at the reality that oneself number one position is replaced. Contrary, german circumstance differs completely. Although Germany and England are put in constant culture source, but the result appeared to conflict sadly however. Today, when undertaking study to Sino-US relation when us, might as well raise such a few questions. Sino-US can the economic partner concern between exist continuously? If it disappeared, so by what stuff place will be it replaced? Be the simple competition between adversary? Certain still more serious stuff? Be conflict even?
Ask: Your what is forecasting?
Answer: I do not think we are in the initial stage of new-style cold war, or it is to be in Sino-US two countries between the outbreak of real battle level. This is not inevitable. But at the same time, be in in view of China the huge demand of raw material respect -- , and this kind of demand will be bigger and bigger, and the whole world is in of mineral products and rich respect supply capacity, appear between western country and China opposing is inevitable apparently. This a bit is not unexpected, concern because of the conflict great majority that appears on contemporary history and raw material. Mix like 16 centuries 17 centuries, people is gold and silver and battle, 18 centuries are sugar and flavor and battle, 19 centuries are coal and battle, arrived 20 centuries are for oil and battle. because such, I to Sino-US two countries only then the foreign relations that was built 1972 will be terminative a bit does not surprised. Current, we are witnessing it decompose.
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? ? Risk of euro area disintegrate is real exist
Ask: Be in E free plantronic wireless headset urope, the debt crisis of high specified number appears to alleviate somewhat, but why do you still support pessimistic attitude?
Answer: 10 years ago, I had said, euro area will be a not stable substance, because one lacks revenue,allied monetary alliance is won't abiding. This crisis confirm this one analysis. Current, condition is very weak still, and can be its end a problem: Of Germany base civilian alliance constituency has gotten ready accept a such systems to reform -- , the brim state that this reform general gives Europe income allocation of Germany. The answer is negative apparently. This is the crux of the problem of the problem, because if no longer somebody is willing to draw out check to pay, european unifinication process cannot continue. In fact, unifinication process may move toward opposite way even.
Ask: Why can you move toward return way?
Answer: At present we are in the phase of an economy decay, this kind of decay is structural sex, and very deep. If you are right,the unit labor cost since euro area held water 1999 undertakes an analysis, you can discover, the difference of each country cost is bigger and bigger, is not hasten was the same as. In the past, the money that people wants to reside the country that does not leave high to those cost only undertakes devalueing to be able to solve this one problem. Nowadays, to Greek, Ireland, Portuguese or for Spain, want to reduce manufacturing cost, only way cuts nominal salary of the worker namely, this is not an easy thing it seems that.
Ask: Euro area existence " disintegrate " risk?
Answer: This risk is actual existence, and I think having such idea is not what blunder. Simple for, cannot say euro exists at present, mean tomorrow 10 years it will still surrive. The structural sex splitting decomposition that desire of German lack politics and euro area are appearing is two when bring about the future of euro to be full of variable main factors. Meanwhile, in Berlin eye, euro is a kind of necessary anguish, travel mugs stainless because if do not have euro, germany also can face the problem with too strong currency like Switzerland. The optimal argument that euro district future can exist is, it can maintain the interest of German industry effectively. ?
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